Daily Intelligence Brief — September 25, 2026

September 25, 2026

The 60-Second Read

• The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.17% Friday morning, after reaching roughly 5.20% Thursday. The 30-year was reported near 5.48% overnight.
• Friday reports put Brent near $105 a barrel as possible U.S.–Iran terms entered market coverage. No finalized deal or verified reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was reported.
• August durable-goods orders were flat, against a 0.4% decline consensus. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%, missing the 0.5% consensus, while core capital-goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6%.
• The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.03%, even as August new-home sales rose to 684,000 annualized, above the Briefing consensus of 610,000.
• Akamai disclosed an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud deal, and its shares were up about 13% premarket. About $18 billion of Oracle-linked Project Jupiter loans were separately reported trading at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar.
• Apollo Debt Solutions reportedly received withdrawal requests for 14.7% of shares and repurchased 5% in its latest quarter, its third capped quarter. The reported request rate was down from 16.8% the previous quarter.

What Changed Since Yesterday

August durable-goods orders came in at 0.0%, against a 0.4% decline consensus. July was revised down to 0.9% growth from 1.1%. The composition was mixed: orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%, below consensus, while core capital-goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6%, above the 0.5% expectation reported by Trading Economics.

Friday morning reports put the 10-year yield at 5.17% after Thursday’s move to roughly 5.20%, and Brent easing toward $105 a barrel amid reports of possible phased U.S.–Iran terms. Those reports describe a negotiating possibility, not a completed agreement or a verified change in tanker traffic.

Today's Calendar

Times are EDT. Durable-goods figures are completed; Michigan sentiment is upcoming.

What Changed This Week

Monday’s interview account described oil below $100 a barrel and a technology-led equity advance, with U.S.–Iran contact only a possibility. By Thursday, November Brent had been quoted at $105.35 and the 10-year Treasury yield had reached roughly 5.20%. Friday’s reports of possible phased terms brought partial oil and yield relief, but did not establish a Hormuz reopening or restore last week’s lower-yield conditions.

The week’s activity data also moved the evidence away from an immediate aggregate contraction. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs rose to 57.0 and 58.7; initial claims were 197,000; and August new-home sales reached 684,000 annualized. Friday’s durable-goods report added a more qualified result: core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, while orders excluding transportation missed consensus and July’s headline gain was revised lower.

The U.S.–China trade-truce deadline shifted from an expected November expiry to January 10, 2027. The extension changed the timetable, but the supplied reporting still does not specify rare-earth volumes, tariff schedules or enforceable AI commitments. The unresolved tests are whether Hormuz traffic and strategic-material flows change in practice, and whether higher borrowing costs eventually weaken investment, housing and credit.

What Matters Now

Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs, with competing explanations

The 10-year yield stood at 5.17% Friday morning after a three-session rise of 23 basis points took it to roughly 5.20% Thursday. The 30-year was reported near 5.48%. The 10-year remains well above the 4.95% level reported on September 18, despite Friday’s partial retreat.

Treasury demand was mixed across recent operations. Tuesday’s two-year auction was reported as strong, while the five-year auction was weak. Thursday’s buyback accepted $4.078 billion of 20- and 30-year bonds, below the $6 billion planned and $10.468 billion offered. The results do not describe a uniform failure of demand.

Analysts differ on the source of the long-end move. Art Laffer emphasizes higher expected real returns, while David Busch points to Treasury and corporate issuance competing for capital. Earlier Eurodollar University analysis treated curve flattening as a possible warning about future demand, but no current two-year yield or same-time curve spread is supplied. The rise in borrowing costs is clear; the evidence does not isolate its cause.

Durable orders beat on the headline, but components diverged

August durable-goods orders were unchanged, better than the 0.4% decline consensus, but July growth was revised from 1.1% to 0.9%. Ex-transport orders rose 0.3%, below the 0.5% consensus, although July was revised up to 0.7% from 0.4%.

Core capital-goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6%, versus 0.5% expected, after a reported 0.6% increase in July. Transportation orders fell 0.6%; nondefense aircraft and parts fell 4.3%. The series therefore adds evidence of strength in a key business-investment measure without showing an across-the-board acceleration.

This week’s PMIs, claims and new-home sales also challenged claims of an immediate nationwide collapse. They do not measure household budgets, hours worked or lower-quality borrowers. Danielle DiMartino Booth’s claims of a 64% year-over-year increase in small-business bankruptcies and a 34.6% decline in Q2 AI-investment growth raise different questions, but her briefs do not supply the underlying datasets. Friday’s orders provide a current counterpoint to an assertion that business investment has already stopped.

Mortgage rates topped 7% as new-home sales beat expectations

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24, up from 6.95% the previous week and 6.3% a year earlier. August new-home sales reached 684,000 annualized, above the Briefing consensus of 610,000 and the revised July level of 643,000. Trading Economics cited a different market expectation of 620,000.

The August sales result does not measure buying under the mortgage rate reported September 24. Reported new-home supply stood at 483,000, or 8.5 months at the sales pace, and the median price was $393,700. The beat challenges a generalized claim that new-home sales were already slumping; it does not settle how sales, permits or existing-home turnover will respond to financing above 7%.

AI demand remains visible while project financing gets more expensive

Akamai disclosed an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud deal, and its shares rose about 13% premarket Friday. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.55% at 8:36 a.m. These are premarket moves, not closing returns. Oracle fell 3.5% Thursday after a reported force-majeure declaration at a New Mexico data-center project.

Financing reports point to pressure at the project level. Eurodollar University cites marketed SoftBank debt yields near 8.9% to 10% and approximately $18 billion of Oracle-linked Project Jupiter loans quoted at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. It also reports delayed IPO plans, not a broad halt in construction. Casual Finance’s example of a GPU project clearing at 6% financing, barely clearing at 10% and losing money at 12% is a model for one project, not a universal break-even threshold.

Analysts disagree about how quickly financing costs reach spending. Henry Peabody argues that larger and higher-quality borrowers can still access credit, while weaker borrowers face higher costs and less transparent loan marks. Booth’s reported decline in AI-investment growth focuses on momentum; the new Akamai contract and Friday’s 1.6% increase in core capital-goods orders challenge a claim that investment or customer demand has already stopped. Neither resolves whether expected revenue and margins will cover the cost of new projects.

Private-credit liquidity measures are not comparable default rates

Apollo Debt Solutions reportedly received withdrawal requests for 14.7% of shares and repurchased 5%, its third capped quarter. Requests were 16.8% in the prior quarter. Eurodollar University estimates roughly $200 million of gross inflows and $700 million of repurchases, implying a net outflow near $500 million.

Published private-credit stress estimates use different definitions and borrower groups. The same source reports Fitch’s 6.3% default rate across roughly 1,300 U.S. borrowers, Houlihan Lokey’s rate below 1%, and PIMCO’s 19% “shadow default” estimate for a different retail-oriented BDC population. Those figures cannot be read as competing estimates of the same default measure.

Peabody expects defaults to rise over roughly a year, but does not forecast a spike. Busch separates floating-rate loans’ limited duration exposure from their borrower, valuation and redemption risks. Higher Treasury yields make the financing question more immediate, but the Friday research contains no new comprehensive credit-spread, nonaccrual or private-loan-mark release.

What to Watch Next

Sources

• Briefing weekly economic calendar: September 25 durable-goods actuals, consensus, forecasts, prior values and revisions; Michigan sentiment timing and consensus.
• Trading Economics, September 25: Treasury yields, oil reports, dollar, equity futures and durable-goods components; September 24 mortgage rates, new-home sales, Treasury buyback and auction reporting.
• Finviz, September 25, 8:36 a.m.: Premarket equity futures and Akamai share move.
• Analytical research: Art Laffer and David Busch on Treasury yields; Eurodollar University, Casual Finance and Henry Peabody on AI financing and private credit; Danielle DiMartino Booth on small-business bankruptcies and AI-investment growth.
• Historical comparison: September 24 and September 18 research dossiers; Monday market conditions as described in the Clem Chambers interview.